Comments on: First Law of Political Thermodynamics: For every action there is an unequal and opposite reaction

By: Is Hamas Looking For a Two-State Solution? Should We Listen? « South Jerusalem: Gershom Gorenberg and Haim Watzman

Thu, 10 Apr 2008 12:41:12 +0000

[...] First Law of Political Thermodynamics: For every action there is an unequal and opposite reaction [...]

By: Childe’s Play: Neolithic Revolution or Evolution? « South Jerusalem: Gershom Gorenberg and Haim Watzman

Mon, 24 Mar 2008 16:16:00 +0000

[...] 24, 2008 by Haim Watzman I’ll forgive Gershom his faux pas in referring to the laws of thermodynamics when he meant Newton’s laws of motion; after all, [...]

By: Y. Ben-David

Y. Ben-David — Fri, 21 Mar 2008 15:19:23 +0000

Chris, why do you think the Syrians “would love to make a deal with Israel?” The Syrians view their alliance with Iran as the winning combination…they see the popularity of extremist Islam as personified by Iran and their HIZBULLAH allies (yes, Syria is secular, but they play up to the religious extremists)
and what they perceive as American and Israeli military and political decline and “decadence”. A peace agreement with Israel could endanger their influence in Lebanon, since part of the population there hates Syria and wants independence.

Many people believe a peace agreement with Israel would mean the ultimate downfall of the minority Alawite regime in power in Syria. Opening Syria up to outside influence and loss of the “Zionist bogeyman” might cause Syrians to question why they have to put up with the corrupt, totalitarian regime that has been impoverishing them for years, without the regime having the conflict with Israel to rally ’round the regime.

If all the Iranians want is “security”, why are they carrying out an imperialist (yes, that is the word for it) policy in the Middle East spending huge amounts of money they can ill afford trying to buy influence in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Sudan and other places and sending troops as well to some of them?

By: Chris Dornan

Chris Dornan — Fri, 21 Mar 2008 13:20:27 +0000

it will take a dramatic change in the US attitude towards Syrian before Syria will break their pact with Iran. The Syrians aren't stupid and won't stand by while Iran is wrecked with no guarantees that they won't be next on the list. My guess is that the Syrians would love to make a deal with Israel, but it has to be a deal that provides them with meaningful security guarantees. Why not go further and make a deal with the Iranians. The calculus is the same for them. I strongly recommend Trita Parsi's Treacherous Alliance for anyone who hasn't come across it: the ideology is a cover for the geopolitics. Just like Israelis and everyone else they want security.

By: Y. Ben-David

Y. Ben-David — Fri, 21 Mar 2008 05:29:32 +0000

I am afraid you have confused your physics. The First Law of Thermodynamics says “energy is conserved”. The “every action has an equal and opposite reaction” is one of Newton’s Laws.

You are quite right, though, that Israeli leaders project their own views and values on the Palestinians. I heard this in a lecture from someone who worked for years in the Israeli Foreign Ministry. Many people there have said for years that “Syria deep down wants peace with Israel and to break its alliance with Iran”. Also former AMAN (IDF military intelligence) Uri Saguy is still maintaining this, even though the Syrian/Iranian alliance seems rock solid…they perceive it to be winning. Saguy and the other keep thinking to themselves “if I were Assad, I would want to make peace”, so on this basis, they make their assessments.
Similarly, in the period leading up the Six-Day War, the MOSSAD’s official assessment was “Nasser won’t heat up the situation, he is bogged down in a war in Yemen, his popularity is declining in Egypt due to economic stagnation..he realizes war with Israel is not in his interest”. So much for these “experts”.

By: CSF

CSF — Fri, 21 Mar 2008 00:36:09 +0000

I don’t know if this point is in the Kahneman article, but a well-known principle in social psychology is sometimes called the “fundamental attribution error,” which boils down to: I understand my actions as having been determined by circumstances; I understand others’ actions as having been determined by their intentions.

By: Chris Dornan

Chris Dornan — Thu, 20 Mar 2008 22:50:16 +0000

How about both sides showing some real empathy and compassion? Wouldn’t that at least be simpler and more certain in its effect–though not easy to do, of course.

I have been trying to argue this case in the surrogate Israeli/Palestinian wars that take place on internet fora–this is a global phenomenon, and particularly trying to get European liberals to view Israelis in this way. I keep being surprised by the forcefulness of the pushback and the angry atmosphere that follows in people that see themselves as peaceful and compassionate (though this wouldn’t surprise you I suppose).